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Will Oil Crash Again If OPEC Fails To Extend Its Deal? (USO)

11 Noviembre 2017

"Stronger oil fundamentals and investor inflows have been the catalyst for higher oil prices, but adding further support now is a focus on several geopolitical risks that have been looming over oil markets for a while", said analysts at Citi.

In a bullish oil market, where the price of the global benchmark Brent crude increased by almost 40 percent since June, the bears are feeling a bit energized with the fact that China's crude imports have declined to the lowest in 12 months because India and China have been the biggest drivers of demand growth this year.

Growing anticipation of an extension to the output cap, based on comments from a number of key people has also supported the oil price rise. "We're on our way to set record crude oil production in 2018", said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.

"If the uncertainty in Saudi Arabia further escalates, oil prices might rise toward $70 per barrel".

Shale oil is a type of crude oil usually found in shale and limestone rock deposits and extracted through hydraulic fracturing.

Crude oil futures fell Friday, trimming strong recent gains as data showed the US oil rig count jumped last week.

WTI crude oil, meanwhile, also moved higher, hitting $57.35 per barrel, before edging a little lower.

However, Adi Imsirovic, a teaching fellow in Economics at Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), argued that the new developments in the Middle East could create market risks and drive up oil prices in the future. There will be a lot of resistance to change. The Saudis want crude oil higher, and they're doing a good job in achieving that end.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers will meet in Vienna on November 30 to discuss oil output cuts agreed on in 2016. According to Morse, OPEC will either postpone a definite decision to early next year, or just extend the cuts by three months. Economists had expected the index to dip to 100.0. "But I think as things stand, they will be able to reach an agreement in the November meeting", the senior lecturer in Energy Economics, Xiaoyi Mu, has concluded.

Russia, a non-OPEC contributor to supply cuts, said it would be open to extending its 300,000 bpd cuts, which are enacted in addition to the bloc's reduction scheme.

Will Oil Crash Again If OPEC Fails To Extend Its Deal? (USO)